When to Check Your Cash Runway
Six specific moments when recalculating runway changes your next move.
Runway is not a dashboard metric — it's a trigger-based check. These six moments mean recompute now.
Nobody checks runway weekly. That's fine — the number only matters when a decision is pending. But when these six triggers fire, recalculate before you move. Getting them wrong by a month or two is the difference between raising from strength and raising in panic.
Quick answer
Runway is not a dashboard metric — it's a trigger-based check. These six moments mean recompute now.
Key points
- ▸ Before any raise: you need to know how many months of oxygen you're negotiating from. 18+ months means patient money; 6 months means whatever terms you can get.
- ▸ Before a hire: add the fully-loaded cost (salary + benefits + overhead) to burn and see how much runway it costs you. A $120k hire at 30% loading is ~$13k/month.
- ▸ After losing a customer: subtract the lost revenue and see if the new Zero Date still fits your plan. Sometimes one departure changes the whole fundraise timeline.
- ▸ After signing a big contract: model the cash timing — when does the money actually arrive vs. when do you need it? Signed ≠ collected.
- ▸ Before any shock expense (legal settlement, equipment failure, tax bill): run Crisis mode to see the floor, not just the happy path.
- ▸ Quarterly regardless: drift is real. Even without a trigger, quarterly runway math catches the slow creep of cost growth.
Examples
- Fundraise timing12 months runway means a 6-month fundraise window. 6 months runway means you're already late. Knowing which bucket you're in changes who you pitch and how.
- Big hire decisionAdding one senior engineer at $180k loaded cost is $15k/mo — at current burn that's potentially 2 months of runway. Is the hire worth 2 months of oxygen?
- Customer loss shockA $20k/month customer leaves. If your revenue was $60k, you lost a third. Recompute — the Zero Date likely moved forward by 3-4 months.
When to use which tool
- Runway ZeroAt every trigger above. Save the snapshot — it informs the next decision.Calculate the exact month your cash runs out. Crisis toggle models a worst-case scenario with revenue zeroed.
- Shock SurvivalWhen the trigger is a shock expense, stress-test specifically.How many months of debt service survive an unexpected shock expense. Critical warning under 3 months.
Related
- Runway ZeroCalculate the exact month your cash runs out. Crisis toggle models a worst-case scenario with revenue zeroed.
- Shock SurvivalHow many months of debt service survive an unexpected shock expense. Critical warning under 3 months.
- What Runway Zero CalculatesThe exact month cash hits zero at today's burn and revenue.
- Six Runway Calculation MistakesThe common errors that make runway look longer than it actually is.
Frequently asked questions
› How often is too often? How-to
Weekly runway checks are anxiety, not management. Monthly max, tied to actual cash movement. Daily is a sign something is wrong with the underlying business.
› Does revenue growth save the runway?
Only if cash-in-hand grows faster than cash-out-the-door. Fast-growing businesses often have worse runway because growth consumes working capital. Watch cash, not revenue.
› How should I use a decision framework in real life? How-to
Use a decision framework to expose the tradeoff, not to outsource the decision. Write down the inputs, compare the output with your constraints, then ask what would change the answer. The strongest use is scenario testing: base case, conservative case, and failure case.
› Is this financial, legal, or tax advice? Trust & accuracy
No, this is not legal, financial, tax, medical, or professional advice unless the page explicitly says that use case is supported. It organizes assumptions so you can inspect them. Verify high-stakes choices with qualified people who can review facts, contracts, regulations, and downside risk.
› What assumption matters most in a decision model? Edge case
The most important assumption is usually the one you are least certain about and most emotionally attached to. Change that input first. If the recommendation flips after a small change, the decision is fragile and needs more evidence before you treat the model as useful.