When to Run Cloud Exit
Five specific moments when the cloud-vs-self-host math shifts enough to force the question.
Cloud bills don't audit themselves. These five moments mean run the exit math now.
Most teams never run cloud-exit math until the bill hurts — and by then the reserved-instance commits make exit expensive. Proactive reruns at these five moments keep options open.
Quick answer
Cloud bills don't audit themselves. These five moments mean run the exit math now.
Key points
- ▸ Monthly bill crosses $1k steady-state: below this, labor cost of self-hosting usually dominates. Above it, the math starts mattering.
- ▸ Egress dominates the bill: if data transfer is over 20% of total cloud cost, self-hosting or a CDN offload is likely cheaper.
- ▸ Workload is predictable: non-spiky, steady utilization favors self-hosting. Elastic or unpredictable workloads lean cloud.
- ▸ Before reserved-instance commits: signing a 3-year RI locks in cloud pricing and locks out self-host optionality for that window. Run the math first.
- ▸ Annual infra review: cloud prices creep up; hardware prices drop. Last year's "cloud wins" may be this year's "self-host wins" without any active decision.
- ▸ After an egress or compute price change: big three clouds re-price every 12-18 months. Rerun after any pricing change affecting your main line items.
Examples
- Bill-crosses-$1k triggerCloud spend hit $1,200/mo last quarter. Worth a one-hour audit: if predictable, self-host saves $500+/mo over hardware lifetime. If spiky, stay.
- Egress-dominates trigger$800 compute + $600 egress = $1,400/mo. Moving egress-heavy workload to self-host or adding a CDN cuts $400-500/mo. Run Cloud Exit first.
- Pre-RI triggerAWS offers 40% discount for 3-year RI. Before signing: does self-host beat RI pricing? Often yes for predictable compute. The RI discount is a lock-in you may not want.
When to use which tool
- The Cloud ExitRun at each trigger. Save the snapshot — it's a decision trail when the next bill review comes.When does a $2k cloud bill justify an $8k rack? Crossover math with depreciation, electricity, and uptime risk.
- The CrossoverFor simpler subscription vs purchase comparisons without the infra complexity, use Crossover directly.The exact month when a monthly subscription overtakes a one-time lifetime purchase. Opportunity-cost toggle included.
Related
- The Cloud ExitWhen does a $2k cloud bill justify an $8k rack? Crossover math with depreciation, electricity, and uptime risk.
- The CrossoverThe exact month when a monthly subscription overtakes a one-time lifetime purchase. Opportunity-cost toggle included.
- What Cloud Exit CalculatesThe month your cumulative cloud bill overtakes self-hosted cost including depreciation, electricity, and risk.
- Six Cloud Exit MistakesThe errors that make self-hosting look cheaper than it turns out to be — and one that makes cloud look cheaper than it is.
- What Crossover CalculatesThe exact month a monthly subscription overtakes a one-time lifetime purchase.
Frequently asked questions
› What if we don't have infra talent in-house?
Add the cost of hiring or contracting infra maintenance as Maint Hours at loaded rate. If the number doesn't pencil out with outside help, stay in cloud.
› Does this apply to databases specifically?
Yes, but with caution. RDS, DocumentDB, and managed Postgres include high-value backup and failover. Self-host math works for low-criticality databases; production transactional stores may still warrant the managed premium.
› How should I use a decision framework in real life? How-to
Use a decision framework to expose the tradeoff, not to outsource the decision. Write down the inputs, compare the output with your constraints, then ask what would change the answer. The strongest use is scenario testing: base case, conservative case, and failure case.
› Is this financial, legal, or tax advice? Trust & accuracy
No, this is not legal, financial, tax, medical, or professional advice unless the page explicitly says that use case is supported. It organizes assumptions so you can inspect them. Verify high-stakes choices with qualified people who can review facts, contracts, regulations, and downside risk.
› What assumption matters most in a decision model? Edge case
The most important assumption is usually the one you are least certain about and most emotionally attached to. Change that input first. If the recommendation flips after a small change, the decision is fragile and needs more evidence before you treat the model as useful.