Cloud Exit
Cumulative cloud cost vs (hardware ÷ depreciation) + electricity + maintenance + uptime risk.
Self-host crossover = month cumulative cloud cost ≥ cumulative self-host cost. Egress is the silent killer.
Self-hosting gets mocked until the cloud bill clears $2k/mo — then it is obvious. The question is when, specifically, it flips. The math has four hidden costs on the self-host side and one silent killer on the cloud side.
Part of: Saving & Spending Calculators
Quick answer
Self-host crossover = month cumulative cloud cost ≥ cumulative self-host cost. Egress is the silent killer.
Key points
- ▸ Self-host monthly = hardware ÷ depreciation months + electricity + (maintenance hours × your rate) + (cloud × uptime risk %).
- ▸ Depreciation: 36 months standard for servers, 48–60 for low-duty, 24 for bleeding-edge.
- ▸ Uptime risk: treat as a % of cloud spend you "save up for" outages — typical 2–5%.
- ▸ Data egress is the cloud cost people ignore — sometimes 10–30% of the bill on streaming or ML workloads.
- ▸ Self-hosting wins on steady workloads; cloud wins on spiky ones where hardware would sit idle.
Examples
- Typical API$2k cloud + $250 egress vs $8k rack → crossover at month 4–5. Dramatic.
- High egress$1.5k compute + $800 egress vs same rack → crossover month 3. Egress dominates.
- Spiky workloadAutoscale-friendly spiky workloads can make cloud cheaper even past month 60. Check utilization before leaping.
When to use which tool
- The Cloud ExitMain tool — cumulative crossover chart with all four self-host cost lines.When does a $2k cloud bill justify an $8k rack? Crossover math with depreciation, electricity, and uptime risk.
- The CrossoverFor the simpler subscription-vs-lifetime version.The exact month when a monthly subscription overtakes a one-time lifetime purchase. Opportunity-cost toggle included.
- The Value FloorFor valuing the maintenance time you will put into the rack.Is your time worth more than the professional quote? Balance-scale verdict with DIY cost vs outsourcing.
Related
- The Cloud ExitWhen does a $2k cloud bill justify an $8k rack? Crossover math with depreciation, electricity, and uptime risk.
- The CrossoverThe exact month when a monthly subscription overtakes a one-time lifetime purchase. Opportunity-cost toggle included.
- Hire vs AutomateShould you hire a human at $X/hr or pay $Y/mo for a SaaS/automation stack? Efficiency bar comparison.
- S&P 500 Reality CheckWhat this $10k would be worth in 10, 20, or 30 years if invested instead. Compound-growth opportunity-cost filter.
Frequently asked questions
› Do I include hardware opportunity cost?
If you buy the rack cash, yes — compute what $8k would earn in the market over the depreciation window. The S&P check tool does this.
› What about disaster recovery?
Add a second rack, off-site. The tool assumes single-rack; multi-site adds 60–80% to the self-host cost line.
› How should I use this guide with a Kefiw tool? How-to
Use the guide as the plan and the linked Kefiw tool as the check. Read the steps first, try the move manually, then use the tool to compare outputs, catch edge cases, and decide whether the result actually fits your task.
› What mistake do tool guides help avoid? Troubleshooting
Tool guides help avoid using a utility mechanically without understanding what you are trying to accomplish. Most word, writing, and text utilities are fast, but speed can hide context mistakes. Know whether you are solving a puzzle, cleaning copy, drafting a line, or checking a rule.
› Can a tool guide help me learn the skill? How-to
A tool guide can help you learn if you pause before accepting the output and ask why it worked. Compare your first guess with the tool result, look for the rule or pattern, and repeat that review. Passive copying solves one task; active review builds the skill.